Researchers at São Paulo State University (UNESP) in Araçatuba, Brazil, have developed a computational tool that acts like a “COVID-19 accelerometer,” plotting in real time the rate at which growth is accelerating or decelerating in more than 200 countries and territories.
Researchers at São Paulo State University (UNESP) in Araçatuba, Brazil, have developed a computational tool that acts like a “COVID-19 accelerometer,” plotting in real time the rate at which growth is accelerating or decelerating in more than 200 countries and territories. Available free of charge online, the application automatically loads the most recent notified case numbers from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), updated daily, and applies mathematical modeling techniques to diagnose the current stage of the pandemic in each country.
“The application democratizes access to information. Everyone can understand exactly what’s happening in their city, state or country. It also helps public administrators and policymakers evaluate whether measures taken to mitigate transmission of the novel coronavirus are having the desired effect,” Yuri Tani Utsunomiya told Agência FAPESP. Utsunomiya is a professor at UNESP’s Araçatuba School of Veterinary Medicine (FMVA) and first author of an article published in Frontiers in Medicine showing how the mathematical modeling framework can be used to assess the effects of public health measures.
To explain how an epidemic progresses, Utsunomiya offered an analogy to a fast car. Initially, the disease spreads slowly, and daily cases grow slowly, just as a car takes some time to pick up speed. The rate of growth is called the ‘incidence’ and is measured by the number of new cases per day. Prevalence is the total number of cases since counting began and can be compared to the distance traveled by this imaginary car.
Read more at Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo
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