Extreme fire seasons in recent years highlight the urgent need to better understand wildfires within the broader context of climate change.
Extreme fire seasons in recent years highlight the urgent need to better understand wildfires within the broader context of climate change. Under climate change, many drivers of wildfires are expected to change, such as the amount of carbon stored in vegetation, rainfall, and lightning strikes. Quantifying the relative importance of these processes in recent and future wildfire trends has remained challenging, because previous climate computer model simulations did not capture the full coupling between climate change, lightning, wildfires, smoke and corresponding shifts in solar radiation and heat.
A new study published in the journal Science Advances by an international team of climate scientists presents the first realistic supercomputer simulation that resolves the complex interactions between fire, vegetation, smoke and the atmosphere. The authors find that increasing greenhouse gas emissions will likely increase the global lightning frequency by about 1.6% per degree Celsius global warming, with regional hotspots in the eastern United States, Kenya, Uganda and Argentina [Figure 1A]. Locally this could intensify wildfire occurrences. However, the dominant drivers for the growing area burned by fires each year [Figure 1B] remain shifts in global humidity and a more rapid growth of vegetation, which can serve as wildfire fuel.
The study further identifies regions, where the intensification of fires caused by global warming will be most pronounced [Figure 1B]. Among the regions exhibiting the strongest anthropogenic trends in biomass burning are southern and central equatorial Africa, Madagascar, Australia, parts of the Mediterranean and western North-America. “Our results show that with every degree global warming the global mean area burned by fires each year will increase by 14%. This can have substantial effects on ecosystems, infrastructure and human health and livelihoods.” says Dr. Vincent VERJANS, former postdoctoral research fellow at the IBS Center for Climate Physics (now at Barcelona Supercomputing Center) and lead author of the study.
Read more at Institute for Basic Science
Photo Credit: fish96 via Pixabay
