On February 2, 1887, residents of Punxsutawney Pennsylvania consulted a large rodent regarding the arrival of spring, marking the first official celebration of Groundhog Day.
On February 2, 1887, residents of Punxsutawney Pennsylvania consulted a large rodent regarding the arrival of spring, marking the first official celebration of Groundhog Day. According to Rob Guralnick, curator of biodiversity informatics at the Florida Museum of Natural History, our ability to predict the timing of seasons hasn’t improved much since then.
“We can’t generate good forecasts for whether spring will arrive early or late next year nearly as well as we can make predictions about the weather,” he said.
Weather patterns influence when a season begins and ends, but the ways in which plants and animals respond to these patterns, called phenology, is just as crucial. Meteorologists can make reliable temperature forecasts months in advance, but when it comes to predicting when a species of tree will start growing leaves throughout its range, scientists are often left shrugging.
When complex factors like climate change are added to the mix, such predictions become even more difficult to make.
Read more at Florida Museum of Natural History
Photo Credit: GoranH via Pixabay
