New Model to Enhance Extreme Rainfall Prediction

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New research by an international team of climate experts shows intense, localised, heavy bursts of rainfall can be caused by a rapid rise of air through clouds and proves that these rises in air can be forecast.

New research by an international team of climate experts shows intense, localised, heavy bursts of rainfall can be caused by a rapid rise of air through clouds and proves that these rises in air can be forecast. The team have developed a unique, cutting-edge modelling system marking a fundamental change in how we identify and forecast life threatening, short-duration, extreme rainfall. Better prediction of these intense downpours will help provide crucial time for communities to prepare for extreme weather which can lead to devastating flash floods such as was seen in Boscastle in August 2004 or London in August 2022.

Published in the journal Weather and Climate Extremes, the study was led by the Met Office and Newcastle University, with support from the Universidad de Costa Rica, San Jose, Costa Rica and the Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland.

Read more at: Newcastle University

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