Heavy rain and flooding in Brazil in November could tell forecasters whether December, January and February in Britain will be cold and dry or mild and wet.
Heavy rain and flooding in Brazil in November could tell forecasters whether December, January and February in Britain will be cold and dry or mild and wet.
This is because forecasting European winter weather patterns months in advance is made simpler during years of strong El Niño or La Niña events in the tropical Pacific Ocean, a new study has found.
A strong El Nino or La Nina in the Pacific Ocean can bring big changes in temperatures, wind patterns and rainfall patterns to South America. When this occurs, forecasters can more easily tell if Europe will have a mild winter or a cold one. In contrast, when tropical Pacific temperatures were close to average, it was more difficult for forecasters to predict what sort of weather Europe would have in December, January and February.
Dr Laura Baker, lead author of the research at the University of Reading and National Centre for Atmospheric Science, said: “Understanding when seasonal forecasts are likely to be more or less reliable could help everyone from energy companies planning for winter demand to government agencies preparing for potential weather-related emergencies. Our findings could help to improve long-range winter forecasts in other parts of the world, as well as Europe.
Read more at University of Reading
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