The intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall increases exponentially with global warming, a new study finds.
The intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall increases exponentially with global warming, a new study finds. The analysis by researchers from the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK) shows that state-of-the-art climate models significantly underestimate how much extreme rainfall increases under global warming – meaning that extreme rainfall could increase quicker than climate models suggest.
“Our study confirms that the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall extremes are increasing exponentially with every increment of global warming,” explains Max Kotz, lead-author of the study published in the ‘Journal of Climate’. These changes follow the physical theory of the classic Clausius-Clapeyron relation of 1834, which established that warmer air can hold more water vapor. ”State-of-the-art climate models vary on how strongly extreme rainfall scales with global warming and that they underestimate it compared to historical observations.”
“Climate impacts on society have been calculated using climate models. Now our findings suggest that these impacts could be much worse than we thought. Extreme rainfall will be heavier and more frequent. Society needs to be prepared for this,” says PIK department head and author of the study Anders Levermann. Changes in the frequency and intensity of daily rainfall extremes over land can impact social welfare, the economy and social stability, given their link to flooding but also ground-water availability, which can cause considerable loss of life and financial losses.
Read more at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
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