The upcoming bushfire season in Australia may be bad, but future years pose a more significant threat, says a UNSW bushfire expert.
The upcoming bushfire season in Australia may be bad, but future years pose a more significant threat, says a UNSW bushfire expert.
The recent devastation caused by wildfires across Europe and Hawaii has sparked concerns about the return of catastrophic bushfires in Australia. Coupled with the forecast that the southern hemisphere is likely entering a hot and dry El Niño event, conditions could be favourable for major fires after a few years of subdued activity.
But Professor Jason Sharples, an expert in bushfires dynamics from UNSW Canberra, says while it’s always hard to predict exactly what will unfold in Australia, it’s unlikely to be a repeat of the 2019-2020 Black Summer bushfires.
“El Niño conditions don’t necessarily mean we will have a worse bushfire season, though it does mean we’re more likely to have hotter temperatures, less rainfall, and dry conditions that can lead to destructive fires,” Prof. Sharples says. “Instead of being hit hard this year, we may see the impacts of El Niño accumulate and combine with climate change in the next season and the ones following.”
Read more at University of New South Wales
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