For tiny salamanders squirming skin-to-soil, big-picture weather patterns may seem as far away as outer space. But for decades, scientists have mostly relied on free-air temperature data at large spatial scales to predict future salamander distributions under climate change.
For tiny salamanders squirming skin-to-soil, big-picture weather patterns may seem as far away as outer space. But for decades, scientists have mostly relied on free-air temperature data at large spatial scales to predict future salamander distributions under climate change. The outlook was dire for the mini ecosystem engineers, suggesting near elimination of habitat in crucial areas.
Now, University of Illinois researchers are tuning into the microclimates that really matter to the imperiled amphibians and forecasting a somewhat more hopeful future.
“The older estimates were predicting almost 100% of the suitable habitat being wiped out for some of these species. But once we incorporated microclimate data at fine spatial scales for our study area in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP), we found it might not be nearly that severe.
Read more at: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
College of ACES researchers, including Sam Stickley (pictured), found plethodontid salamanders may not decline due to climate change as much as originally predicted, based on older species distribution models. Re-running those models using microclimate data more relevant to the salamanders' habitat, the researchers found less decline and even some areas where the amphibians may gain habitat by 2050. (Photo Credit: Sam Stickley, University of Illinois College of ACES.)
