By the end of this century, permafrost in the rapidly warming Arctic will likely emit as much carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere as a large industrial nation, and potentially more than the U.S. has emitted since the start of the industrial revolution.
By the end of this century, permafrost in the rapidly warming Arctic will likely emit as much carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere as a large industrial nation, and potentially more than the U.S. has emitted since the start of the industrial revolution.
But that’s only one possible future for the vast stores of carbon locked in the formerly perennially frozen but now-thawing ground in the Arctic. Using more than a decade of synthesis science and region-based models, a new study led by Northern Arizona University and the international Permafrost Carbon Network and published in Annual Review of Environment and Resources forecasts cumulative emissions from this “country of permafrost” through 2100 under low, medium and high warming scenarios.
“We hope that these forecasts of future Arctic carbon emissions not only update the scientific picture but act as new guide rails for policymakers who are working to stabilize the climate and avoid exceeding temperature targets,” said Ted Schuur, Regents’ professor in the Department of Biological Sciences and Center for Ecosystem Science and Society at NAU and lead author of the study.
Read more at: Northern Arizona University
Nine future worlds and their cumulative Arctic carbon emissions by 2100. Linked to low, medium, and high climate warming, the pie above each 'slice' of Earth represents total estimated carbon emissions (from carbon dioxide and methane) this century from the unregulated 'country of permafrost.' (Photo Credit: Victor O. Leshyk, Center for Ecosystem Science and Society)
