Climate experts and engineers have created a new model to predict the damage caused by adverse weather.
Climate experts and engineers have created a new model to predict the damage caused by adverse weather. This new framework for ‘consequence forecasting’ enables first responders to effectively target resources prior to an extreme weather event, such as Storm Eunice.
The pre-event decision-making model works by first developing relationships between wind speed and faults on the electricity network. The relationships are then used to estimate faults of electricity networks and potential customer interruptions. This model can be used as early as 24 hours before extreme weather events.
Published in the journal Climate Risk Management, the study findings can enable effective first response to manage infrastructure systems impacted by hazardous weather. Having the forecasting tools to predict and prepare for storm damage will reduce the societal consequences of extreme weather, including power loss for customers and fines for electrical distribution companies.
The study was led by Dr Sean Wilkinson of Newcastle University’s School of Engineering, and involved experts from the Met Office and EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland. The team used an advanced weather numerical model to develop the prediction system.
Read more at Newcastle University
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