Ecologists estimate that 15 to 37% of plant and animal species will go extinct as a direct result of the rapidly changing climate.
Ecologists estimate that 15 to 37% of plant and animal species will go extinct as a direct result of the rapidly changing climate. But new University of Arizona-led research published in the journal Ecology Letters shows that current models don't account for the complexities of ecosystems as they are impacted by climate change. As a result, these extinction rates are likely underestimated.
As the climate continues to rapidly change, the area in which a given species can live often shrinks. Researchers wondered what factors beyond climate must be considered when trying to determine species abundance, distribution and risk of extinction.
"This is a central question in ecology, and it has become even more important with climate change," said study co-author Margaret Evans, assistant professor of dendrochronology in the UArizona Laboratory of Tree Ring Research.
Evans and her collaborators used data from over 23,000 piñon pines in the southwestern United States to model how climate affects the pine species. While climate affects the trees directly via temperature and precipitation, it also impacts them indirectly through its influence on insects and fire, the researchers found. Those indirect effects can cause rapid shifts in the trees' population and distribution on the landscape. The researchers say this nuance cannot be captured using climate-only models, which base their estimates on direct climate impacts.
Read more at University of Arizona
Image: Piñon pine forests near Los Alamos, N.M., had already begun to turn brown from drought stress in the image at left, in 2002, and another photo taken in 2004 from the same vantage point, at right, show them largely grey and dead. (Credit: Craig Allen, U.S. Geological Survey)
