Extra caution is required in developing climate forecasts of enclosed seas.
"Extrapolating future climate trends from historical data is more challenging for enclosed seas than it is for open oceans and should be done with extreme caution," according to KAUST ocean modeling expert Ibrahim Hoteit. The finding follows detailed data reanalyses and computer simulations on wind and wave conditions over the Red Sea.
Hoteit and a team of researchers in Saudi Arabia, Italy and Ecuador examined high-resolution global datasets to identify and simulate wind and wave trends over the Red Sea since 1979. They then conducted advanced statistical analyses on lower-resolution data extending back to the beginning of the 20th century to investigate the influence of various global trends on the ones identified in the Red Sea.
“This allowed us to identify potential links with established climate patterns and quantify their influence on the trends identified from the high-resolution data,” explains KAUST research scientist Sabique Langodan.
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