Scientists agree that sea levels will continue to rise this century, but projections beyond 2050 are much more uncertain regarding exactly how much higher ocean levels will be by 2100.
Scientists agree that sea levels will continue to rise this century, but projections beyond 2050 are much more uncertain regarding exactly how much higher ocean levels will be by 2100. While actions to protect against 2050 sea-level rise have a secure scientific basis, this range in late-century estimates makes it difficult for coastal communities to plan their long-term adaptation strategies.
Princeton University researchers at the Center for Policy Research on Energy and the Environment have developed a new framework allowing urban planners and policymakers to consider a combination of responses to sea-level rise (e.g., levees, storm surge barriers, elevating buildings, retreat) and, if hard structures, how high these protections should be built, depending on their tolerance for risk and the projected financial losses to a particular area due to flooding. The paper was published in Earth’s Future.
Over the past 100 years, relative sea level measured at The Battery, the historic park at the southernmost tip of Manhattan Island, New York, has increased by 0.285 meters or just under 1 foot, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Because of global warming, scientists expect this rate of sea-level rise to accelerate in the coming decades. However, there is uncertainty regarding how much greenhouse gas emissions will change and how much of Antarctica will melt in response to a warming climate.
Scientific perspectives on these issues result in different projections of global average sea-level rise. For example, local sea levels at the Battery are expected to rise between 0.6 m and 1.8 m from the beginning of this century to 2100. “We will be contending with more frequent, extreme flooding from coastal storms and high tides. These ‘100-year floods’ will become much more frequent – in some places, as often as once per year,” added co-author and leading climate scientist, Michael Oppenheimer.
Read more at Cornell University
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