Sea-level rise due to ice loss in Antarctica could become a major risk for coastal protection even in the near term, scientists say.
Within this century already, due to Antarctica alone global sea-level might rise up to three times as much as it did in the last century. This is a finding of an exceptionally comprehensive comparison of state-of-the-art computer models from around the world.
“The ‘Antarctica Factor’ turns out to be the greatest risk, and also the greatest uncertainty, for sea-levels around the globe,” says lead-author Anders Levermann from the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in New York. “Coastal planning cannot merely rely on the best guess. It requires a risk analysis. Our study provides exactly that: The sea level contribution of Antarctica is very likely not going to be more than 58 centimeters, even under unabated emissions.”
Thermal expansion of the ocean water under global warming and melting of mountain glaciers, which to date have been the most important factors for sea-level rise, will come on top of the contribution from Antarctic ice-loss. The overall sea-level rise risk is thus clearly bigger, yet the ‘Antarctica Factor’ is about to become the most important one in the course of the century, according to the study now published in the journal Earth System Dynamics of the European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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