Seasonal forecasts for this winter were markedly accurate, with mild conditions in Northern Europe in December and January predicted already in October.
Researchers in the S2S4E project are now working to find out how to improve the reliability of future outlooks.
As we wrote in October – before the onset of the current unusually mild winter in Northern Europe – the seasonal forecast models for this winter from the world’s six leading weather agencies all showed a clear signal for a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase.
“This normally translates into warmer and wetter weather than average in Northern Europe, and colder and drier conditions than normal in Southern Europe,” explains Nathalie Schaller, senior researcher at CICERO Center for International Climate Research, and involved in the S2S4E project.
The seasonal forecasts published in November for the December-February period, and in December for January-March were on the same path, and showed a clear positive NAO signal, with warmer than average temperatures in the northern part of Europe.
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Image via CICERO Center for International Climate Research
