Latest predictions suggest that Earth’s global average temperature is likely to reach record warmth during the five-year period 2020-2024.
The current warmest year on record is 2016, but the latest forecast based on Met Office computer models suggest a new annual record is likely within the next five years.
Individual years from 2020 to 2024 are predicted to be between 1.06 °C and 1.62 °C above pre-industrial conditions, and it is ‘likely’ the current record - of 1.16 °C, set in 2016, - will be beaten.
Considering the coming five-year period as a whole, average temperatures are expected to be between 1.15 °C and 1.46 °C above pre-industrial levels. This compares to the last five years (2015-2019) which showed average warming of 1.09 °C, and was the warmest five-year period on record.
These temperatures are consistent with continued high levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases.
Dr Doug Smith is a Met Office fellow and expert on decadal prediction. He said: “The latest five-year forecast suggests continued warming, consistent with sustained high levels of greenhouse gases. Uncertainties exist within the forecast, but most regions are expected to be warmer and forecast patterns suggest enhanced warming over land, especially northern parts of Europe, Asia and North America – extending the ongoing trend.”
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