A weather forecast may not allow time to make decisions that minimize the economic impacts of an extreme event, while a seasonal forecast is not precise enough to predict it.
A weather forecast may not allow time to make decisions that minimize the economic impacts of an extreme event, while a seasonal forecast is not precise enough to predict it. Thus, a spring frost – an event that can affect a small area and that can occur in a very short time – can lead to significant economic damages for the agribusiness players.
Predicting a cold spell a few weeks in advance can allow sector players to optimize their economic choices, changing the purchase times of raw materials in the case of a buyer or adopting adaptation strategies in the case of a farm.
The paper “Multi-model subseasonal forecasts of spring cold spells: potential value for the hazelnut agribusiness” (Materia et al. 2020), just released on the journal Weather and Forecasting, is the result of a research on the topic led by CMCC Foundation.
“Our case study focuses on the production of hazelnuts in the coastal areas of Turkey facing the Black Sea, home of about 70% of global hazelnut production: since this area is exposed to cold spells, being able to anticipate the extreme events that can compromise the production in the region can have an effect on a global scale” explains Stefano Materia, main author of the paper and researcher at the Climate Simulation and Prediction Division of the CMCC Foundation. The research assesses the reliability of the sub-seasonal forecasts in this area and their consequent economic value for some actors in the sector.
Read more at CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
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