New research from the University of Otago has found the sensitive West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapsed during a warming period just over a million years ago when atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were lower than today.
Using biomarkers to reconstruct past ocean temperatures, and through ice sheet computer models, the study published in Quaternary Science Reviews shows that the accepted maximum global warming of 1.5°C under the Paris Agreement could lead to a runaway retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
“Our work shows that very mild ocean warming, like what is happening right now, was the precursor of past ice retreat and that we should really worry about it today,” lead author Dr Catherine Beltran says.
The seven-year study led by Dr Beltran of Otago’s Department of Marine Science and Department of Geology, is the first ever study that uses molecular paleo-temperature tools to successfully reconstruct sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctic for this geological period when atmospheric CO2 was low.
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