When it comes to future sea level rise, most studies predict we’ll see between four to eight inches of global sea level rise between now and 2050.
When it comes to future sea level rise, most studies predict we’ll see between four to eight inches of global sea level rise between now and 2050. This is on top of the six to eight inches the ocean has already risen since the turn of the 20th century. But the looming question is—how many people will be affected by rising seas in the coming decades?
According to a new Climate Central research paper published in Nature Communications, it’s a lot more than previously anticipated. The study, which looked at land elevations in coastal areas, suggests that by 2050 annual coastal flooding will engulf land that is currently home to 300 million people. And, it projects, by 2100, areas that are now home to 200 million people could fall permanently below the high tide line.
Christopher Piecuch, a physical oceanographer at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), says that while land elevation estimates are often incorporated into sea level rise predictions to determine vulnerability to submergence and flooding, these data sets can have uncertainties that make it difficult to confidently project the impacts of rising seas on particular coastal communities. He said this is where the new study takes an important step forward.
“This study, by more accurately mapping elevation near the coast where people live, work, and play, paints a more detailed and granular picture of exposure to risk of coastal flooding and inundation, now and into the future,” said Piecuch.
Read more at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Graphic: As the seas rise, areas across the country will be affected disproportionately. (Graphic courtesy of Climate Central)
