While scientists are much better now at forecasting a hurricane’s track, little advancement has been made in predicting a storm’s intensity over the past 30 years.
While scientists are much better now at forecasting a hurricane’s track, little advancement has been made in predicting a storm’s intensity over the past 30 years. Now, scientists say they are finally making progress in understanding how and why hurricanes intensify, information they say is critical to improving real-time forecasts.
Earlier this summer, Hurricane Dorian was forecast only to be a tropical storm before it rapidly intensified to a Category 5 hurricane in just two days, destroying parts of the Bahamas. Hurricane Maria in 2017 intensified to a Category 5 in just 24 hours—a situation no computer model was able to predict. But this week, scientists from the United States and South Korea published a paper in the journal Geophysical Research Letters detailing a new algorithm to improve the prediction of rapid tropical cyclone intensification within 24 hours.
Read more at Yale Environment 360
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