Reducing fossil fuel emissions aggressively but gradually will not cause a large spike in short-term warming as feared, according to new research.
Climate negotiations have been clouded in recent years by studies predicting that cleaning up fossil-fuel air pollution rapidly will inadvertently lead to a sudden rise in atmospheric temperature – roughly half a degree Celsius – which could take up to a century to reverse.
It has previously been suggested that this would occur because carbon dioxide and other persistent greenhouse gases in the emissions outlast pollutants such as sulphur dioxide, which are short-lived and temporarily mask the greenhouse gases’ warming effects by contributing to the formation of atmosphere-cooling aerosols. It has been argued that, without the masking these aerosols provide, temperatures would suddenly rise.
Researchers at the University of Leeds and Duke University in North Carolina analysed 42 scenarios presenting different timescales for a very rapid worldwide transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. They believe no climate penalty will occur with an aggressive phase-out of fossil fuels.
Dr Chris Smith, from the School of Earth and Environment and Priestley International Centre for Climate at Leeds, said: “Our finding shows these fears are unfounded. These competing effects will approximately balance out..."
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