Findings by a Western-led international research team may mitigate hazard, damage, even loss of life by helping forecast the largest possible earthquake within a series of quakes, according to a study published today.
Findings by a Western-led international research team may mitigate hazard, damage, even loss of life by helping forecast the largest possible earthquake within a series of quakes, according to a study published today.
From April 14-16, 2016, the Kumamoto, Japan, earthquakes featured a magnitude 7.3 mainshock two days after a magnitude 6.5 foreshock. The two quakes killed at least 50 people and injured 3,000 others. Severe damage occurred in Kumamoto and Ōita Prefectures, with numerous structures collapsing and catching fire. More than 44,000 people were evacuated from their homes due to the disaster.
Researchers from Western, the Institute of Statistical Mathematics (Japan) and the University of Potsdam (Germany) studied those events and used them to create a new statistical approach that estimates the probabilities for such extreme earthquakes during a prolonged seismic sequence of events to be above certain magnitudes.
The findings were published today in the journal Nature Communications.
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