A new statistical heat wave forecasting model can help Pakistan predict the triggering and progress of the deadly weather events that plague the country every year, say researchers from Malaysia and Pakistan.
A new statistical heat wave forecasting model can help Pakistan predict the triggering and progress of the deadly weather events that plague the country every year, say researchers from Malaysia and Pakistan.
Pakistan experiences an average of seven heat waves a year. A single heat wave in May 2018 left 65 people dead in Karachi city, while in 2015, heat waves caused the deaths of more than 1,200 people across the country.
A study of the Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) model, due to be published on 1 June in the journal Atmospheric Research, says that it is based on daily maximum temperature data from Princeton University's Global Meteorological Forcing from 1948 to 2010 and data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the US.
The research team used Princeton’s data for the reconstruction of historical heat waves and reanalysed NCEP data to select appropriate sets of predictors to forecast heat waves in Pakistan with a lead time of 1 to 10 days, using the QRF model.
Read more at SciDev.Net
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