Climatologists may be unable to accurately predict regional climate change over the North Atlantic because computer model simulations have failed to accurately include air pressure changes that have taken place in the Greenland region over the last three decades.
Climatologists may be unable to accurately predict regional climate change over the North Atlantic because computer model simulations have failed to accurately include air pressure changes that have taken place in the Greenland region over the last three decades.
This deficiency may mean regional climate predictions for the UK and parts of Europe could be inaccurate, according to new research.
Researchers compared real data with simulation data over a 30 year period and found that the simulations on average showed slightly decreasing air pressure in the Greenland region, when in fact, the real data showed a significant increase in high air pressure – or so-called ‘Greenland blocking’ – during the summer months. These simulations are widely used by climate scientists worldwide as a basis for predicting future climate change.
The findings raise serious questions about the accuracy of regional climate projections in the UK and neighbouring parts of Europe because meteorological conditions in those regions are closely linked to air-pressure changes over Greenland.
Read more at University of Lincoln
Image: Climatologists may be unable to accurately predict climate change because computer model simulations fail to accurately include air pressure changes that have taken place in the Greenland region, pictured, over the last three decades. (Credit: Professor Edward Hanna)
