Novel Framework to Address Uncertainty in Water Management

IIASA researchers have developed a general decision-making framework to support policy decisions on the management of water resources, which, for the first time, explicitly takes into account the associated uncertainties.

Reliable access to clean water is one of the key aspects addressed by the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In fact, most of the SDGs are in some way affected, either directly or indirectly, by growing water scarcity problems, which are likely to be further exacerbated by factors such as climate change and increased water extractions for use in, among other sectors, agriculture and industry.

In their study, the researchers analyzed the wide range of possible future conditions likely to pose significant planning challenges for water management authorities in vulnerable regions and river basins. The complexity of decisions around investments required for infrastructure and other system improvements, for instance, often carry a risk of being more harmful than helpful, and of incurring large costs due to failed investments. In addition, when the wrong decisions are made, it could ultimately lead to the degradation of valuable assets such as non-renewable groundwater resources and water-dependent ecosystems.

“Designing interventions to address water scarcity under climate change is challenging given the large uncertainties in projected water availability and demand. We identified changes in the uncertainty range of anticipated water scarcity conditions and based on this assessment, developed a general decision-making framework to support the design of policy options, which, for the first time, explicitly takes into account the associated uncertainties,” says Peter Greve, IIASA Water Program researcher and lead author of the study published in Nature Sustainability.

Read more at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

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