A new analysis of heat wave patterns appearing today in Nature Climate Change concludes that climate change driven by the buildup of human-caused greenhouse gases will overtake natural variability as the main cause of heat waves in the western United States by the late 2020s and by the mid-2030s in the Great Lakes region.
A new analysis of heat wave patterns appearing today in Nature Climate Change concludes that climate change driven by the buildup of human-caused greenhouse gases will overtake natural variability as the main cause of heat waves in the western United States by the late 2020s and by the mid-2030s in the Great Lakes region.
“These are the years that climate change outweighs natural variability as the cause of heat waves in these regions,” said Hosmay Lopez, a meteorologist at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic Meteorological Laboratory and the University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, and lead author of the study. “Without human influence, half of the extreme heat waves projected to occur in the future wouldn’t happen.”
The research also found that climate change would replace natural variability as the main cause of heat waves in the northern and southern Plains in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. Researchers defined heat waves as three or more consecutive days when temperatures rose to levels among the top five hottest days of the year for a region.
The new research is part of a larger effort to better predict heat waves in the United States. With a growing population, improved heat wave prediction can help inform adaptation and mitigation to protect human health.
Continue reading at NOAA.
Image via NOAA.
