NOAA research is gradually closing the sub-seasonal prediction gap

Predicting the weather a few days in advance is a complex undertaking. But what about the weather 3 to 4 weeks from now? Producing that kind of forecast is a daunting challenge  — but is crucial for a slew of communities. These future forecasts, called sub-seasonal predictions, can help energy companies determine how much power to produce to meet demands for upcoming months; they assist water resource managers controlling reservoir levels ahead of upcoming water use; they even help farmers understand which crops to plant in the face of potential dry weather.

Thanks to a team of scientists led by Nat Johnson, an Associate Research Scholar at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the Cooperative Institute for Climate Science at Princeton University, NOAA’s forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) are increasing the accuracy of their forecast outlooks for multiple weeks into the future. They now have a tool that provides week 3-4 guidance for precipitation, and even better guidance for temperature — all while helping them understand what drives the weather we see several weeks from now.

“The guidance supplied by this tool will allow CPC forecasters to refine and increase the confidence in their forecasts, and even reduce the time to generate their forecasts,” said Johnson. “It also provides the expected temperature and precipitation impacts, and helps us as forecasters understand the drivers behind a forecast.”

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Image via NOAA.