Hokkaido University scientists has developed a new mathematical model which accurately forecasted that a devastating cholera epidemic in Yemen would peak by early July, the 26th week of 2017 and the cumulative incidence would be the order of 700-800 thousand cases.
Hokkaido University scientists has developed a new mathematical model which accurately forecasted that a devastating cholera epidemic in Yemen would peak by early July, the 26th week of 2017 and the cumulative incidence would be the order of 700-800 thousand cases.
Cholera, which is caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae, infects the small intestine through water and food. Symptoms include diarrhea, abdominal cramps and dehydration. Yemen has been hit by one of the world’s worst cholera epidemics, in particular since April 2017. A total of 356,591 suspected cases were reported between April 27 and July 17, of which 1,802 people died.
Epidemiologic research has been conducted globally, using mathematical modeling to study transmission dynamics of major cholera epidemics, mostly with regard to the 2010 epidemic in Haiti. Many studies were conducted to study and evaluate measures to contain cholera epidemics, with most centering on how best to distribute limited resources. But virtually no real-time analyses of data from devastating outbreaks, like the one in Yemen, were conducted to frequently provide updated forecasts.
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Image: Predicted weekly reported incidence to be reported in week 27, 28, 29 and 30, 2017. a Logistic model and b Richards (generalized logistic) model. Parameter estimates of both models were obtained from the datasets from week 16 to 26. (Credit: Nishiura H., et al., Theoretical Biology and Medical Modeling, July 26, 2017)
