A new study published in Nature Communications Earth and Environment gives possible insight into the underprediction of sea ice depletion and the formation of Arctic cyclones.
A new study published in Nature Communications Earth and Environment gives possible insight into the underprediction of sea ice depletion and the formation of Arctic cyclones. Led by Steven Cavallo, a professor in the School of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma, the study could lead to more accurate weather and climate models and better forecasting of Arctic cyclones.
Since 1979, Arctic sea ice extent, a term that describes the area of the Arctic Ocean covered by ice, has been reduced by 40% in the late summer months. Global climate models have consistently underpredicted that reduction. The study examines what Cavallo and his co-authors call “very rapid sea ice loss events,” or VRILEs. The sea ice decline since 1979 is the sum of numerous VRILEs that individually occur in periods of 5 to 18 days.
Cavallo’s publication suggests that Arctic cyclones are at least partially to blame. Arctic cyclones are weather phenomena that are tricky to predict and even trickier to incorporate into models. Though the exact mechanisms of why these cyclones may accelerate the ice loss are not fully understood, Cavallo suggests two theories. The first is the interaction of turbulent seas with ice.
Read more at University of Oklahoma
