A Malthusian catastrophe was originally foreseen to be a forced return to subsistence level conditions once population growth had outpaced agricultural production. The catastrophe is that in doing so many people will starve. Sometime around 2050, there are going to be nine billion people roaming this planet two billion more than there are today. It's a safe bet that all those folks will want to eat. Still, not everyone's convinced that feeding nine billion people is a totally impossible task. A Malthusian catastrophe has been predicted before to happen and has not yet done so, A new paper published this week in Science written by Britain's chief scientific adviser John Beddington along with others, outlines a way this could actually be done.
A Malthusian catastrophe was originally foreseen to be a forced return to subsistence level conditions once population growth had outpaced agricultural production. The catastrophe is that in doing so many people will starve.
Sometime around 2050, there are going to be nine billion people roaming this planet two billion more than there are today. It's a safe bet that all those folks will want to eat. Still, not everyone's convinced that feeding nine billion people is a totally impossible task. A Malthusian catastrophe has been predicted before to happen and has not yet done so, A new paper published this week in Science written by Britain's chief scientific adviser John Beddington along with others, outlines a way this could actually be done.
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Thomas Malthus was a political economist who died in 1834 who is credited with the original theory. What he had not anticipated was the industrial revolution, advances in medicine and advances in agricultural production that has so far prevented this catastrophe on a global basis.
What might have to be done in the future is another matter. Though the world population has increased radically in the last 2 centuries some are predicting a leveling off by around 2100.
The British Science study suggests several changes in how people eat as well as produce new food to help adjust to the new population levels. Some of the discussed items include:
Boosting crop yields: This has been done before with new fertilizers, new crop seed and pesticides. To do may mean new types of genetically modified foods and new pesticides. Both have their potential downsides in long term potential hazards. There are also many small farmers in the developing world that could get more out of their land right now with better training, finances, or currently available technology.
Stop wasting food: The study estimates that 30 percent to 40 percent of the world's food is thrown out each year. In poorer countries, this typically happens because transfer and storage facilities are inadequate or poorly organized. . In wealthier countries, the causes of waste are a a matter of lifestyle choices such as supersized portions, restaurant waste, and conservative "use by dates" when the food still is edible. Fixing all this will require changing our eating habits, food portions and in some cases the underlying regulations.
Less meat: Reducing meat consumption will allow more and less expensive use of vegetable food sources. Again this is a lifestyle choice based on what the culture perceives as normal and acceptable. Then again better and more productive meat production methods may be found that use less land and time in producing.
There are also other competing demands for the raw organics that eventually go into the food supply. These are bio fuels for example. The more biofuel that is used instead of a petroleum based fuel means there is potentially that much less available for food supplies. Again this is related to lifestyle choices such as driving a car instead of mass transportation where it is available.
Finally there are pending climate changes such as global warming that will affect total food production in the upcoming century. In some places more food will be produced and in other places there will be less food produced.
What is certain is what Malthus could not predict neither can anybody else with certainty. What is clear is that lifestyle choices will be changing as the world's population grows and increased agricultural, processing and transportation improvements will be necessary.
For further information: http://www.tnr.com/node/72936 or http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe#Traditional_Malthusian_theory
