Future climate warming will likely cause only minor cuts in energy output at most U.S. coal- or gas-fired power plants, a new Duke University study finds.
The study -- the first of its kind based on real-world data -- rebuts recent modeling-based studies that warn rising temperatures will significantly lower the efficiency of power plants' cooling systems, thereby reducing plants' energy output. Those studies estimated that plant efficiencies could drop by as much as 1.3 percent for each 1 degree Celsius of climate warming.
Future climate warming will likely cause only minor cuts in energy output at most U.S. coal- or gas-fired power plants, a new Duke University study finds.
The study -- the first of its kind based on real-world data -- rebuts recent modeling-based studies that warn rising temperatures will significantly lower the efficiency of power plants' cooling systems, thereby reducing plants' energy output. Those studies estimated that plant efficiencies could drop by as much as 1.3 percent for each 1 degree Celsius of climate warming.
"Our data suggest that drops in efficiency at plants with open-loop, or once-through, cooling systems will be a full order of magnitude smaller than this," said Candise L. Henry, a doctoral student at Duke's Nicholas School of the Environment. "Reductions at plants with wet-circulation, or closed-loop, systems -- which can be identified by their cooling towers -- may be even smaller."
"In large part, this is because plant operators are already constantly adjusting operations to optimize plant performance under changing environmental conditions," she said. "That's a key consideration the past studies overlooked."
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Photograph of the Navajo power plant, which is a coal-fired, electric-power-generation plant near Page, Arizona
