To help untangle fact from speculation, Cornell climate scientists and their colleagues have developed a “robust null hypothesis” to assess the odds of a megadrought – one that lasts more than 30 years – occurring in the western and southwestern United States. The research was published online Dec. 8 in the Journal of Climate.
To help untangle fact from speculation, Cornell climate scientists and their colleagues have developed a “robust null hypothesis” to assess the odds of a megadrought – one that lasts more than 30 years – occurring in the western and southwestern United States. The research was published online Dec. 8 in the Journal of Climate.
“We’re establishing a baseline. We’re looking for the normal pulse of a megadrought. How often do they occur? Do they happen more in periods of climate change?” asks Toby Ault, assistant professor of earth and atmospheric sciences. “We’re examining things happening over the last 1,200 years, including the period known as the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ from about 800 to 1300 A.D., and we’re applying that understanding to see what could happen in the next 100 years.”
Read more at Cornell University
Image: Soil moisture 30 cm below ground projected through 2100 for moderate emissions scenario RCP 4.5. The soil moisture data are standardized to the Palmer Drought Severity Index and are deviations from the 20th century average. (Image Credit: NASA / GSFC)
